The percentages that Moscow will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine are low as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware of it “could be politically and militarily suicidal,” Poland’s prime diplomat in Washington mentioned.
Polish Ambassador Marek Magierowski in an interview this week accused Moscow of utilizing its power exports as a weapon and cautioned towards believing Kremlin propaganda about still-mysterious current assaults on Russian gasoline pipelines supplying Western markets.
In a wide-ranging dialogue with The Washington Instances, Ambassador Magierowski mentioned the West ought to improve subtle weaponry deliveries to Kyiv amid surging Russian missile assaults on Ukrainian cities and harassed that Poland, which shares a 330-mile border with Ukraine, strongly backs Kyiv’s pursuit of each NATO and European Union membership.
With regard to Russian tactical nukes, Ambassador Magierowski, a 51-year-old former journalist who served as Poland’s envoy to Israel earlier than arriving in Washington final yr, mentioned the menace is acquainted for Warsaw, which has vivid Chilly Battle-era recollections of being within the “cross-hairs” of U.S.-Soviet nuclear brinkmanship.
Whereas Poland as we speak is “involved” about nuclear threats emanating from the Kremlin, Ambassador Magierowski famous Mr. Putin has by no means explicitly mentioned Moscow is contemplating deploying much less highly effective, “tactical” nuclear bombs as Russia’s seven-month invasion of Ukraine faces mounting difficulties.
“The percentages are fairly low of Mr. Putin or Russia utilizing the nuclear card,” the ambassador mentioned.
“If we discuss tactical nuclear weapons, mankind has by no means used them,” he mentioned. “We all know what the results of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had been, however tactical nuclear weapons have by no means been utilized in fight, so it could be very tough to foretell what the precise influence could be of utilizing such a warhead, for instance, on the entrance line in Ukraine.”
“I imagine that Mr. Putin is conscious of that, his army is conscious of that,” he mentioned, including that “a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine on the entrance line could be not solely very dangerous when it comes to the publicity of Russian troops to the blast and to the radiation, in a broader context, it could be politically and militarily suicidal for Putin and that’s why I imagine he refrains no longer solely from utilizing this sort of weapon but in addition from speaking about it brazenly.”
The identical logic ought to apply to the query of whether or not Russia is contemplating finishing up a traditional strike towards any NATO member nation neighboring Ukraine, the ambassador mentioned.
“I imagine that Putin does notice that it could be, from his perspective, additionally completely suicidal, each politically and militarily,” he mentioned, asserting that Moscow is properly conscious that NATO would contemplate an armed assault towards any member nation an assault towards all of them.
Ukraine’s NATO bid
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lately requested that NATO contemplate granting Ukraine an “accelerated accession” or a “fast-track” to membership within the alliance. Mr. Putin explicitly listed the likelihood that Ukraine would at some point be a part of the Western army alliance as one justification for launching the invasion earlier this yr.
Poland “would, after all, be completely happy to see Ukraine within the foreseeable future, as a NATO member,” the ambassador mentioned, whereas noting that an accelerated accession is unlikely given “misgivings” amongst a few of the alliance’s 29 different member nations.
He harassed that EU membership for Ukraine ought to take priority as a result of it may frustrate Russian makes an attempt to undermine Kyiv economically and politically.
“What [Putin] fears most is a affluent and rich Ukraine cracking down on effectively on corruption and drawing nearer to the European Union and to Europe as such, to the free world, than to ‘Mom Russia,’” Ambassador Magieroswki mentioned.
He instructed debates over Ukrainian NATO membership needs to be seen throughout the context of how the 1999 inclusion of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary into the alliance modified the trajectory of regional safety.
“What would the world seem like if we had not joined NATO in 1999?” he requested. “We’d most likely be operating to shelters. My fellow countrymen in Poland and my household [would be] defending our nation towards one other Russian incursion in Central Europe.”
Higher European cohesion
Mr. Zelenskyy and Ukrainian army leaders have pressed the Group of Seven nations — the world’s greatest democracies — to offer Ukraine an “air protect” as Russia has renewed an air barrage concentrating on cities and infrastructure websites throughout the nation in current days.
Ambassador Magierowski mentioned Poland stays against the thought of a Western-enforced “no-fly” zone over Ukraine out of concern it could elevate the danger of direct NATO confrontation with Russia. However he mentioned extra must be carried out to ship “state-of-the-art weaponry to Ukraine, which might enable the Ukrainian armed forces to defend their nation extra effectively towards Russian aggression.”
“We’re speaking about long-range missile techniques, anti-aircraft techniques, which Ukraine badly wants proper now,” the ambassador mentioned, including that “Europe may do extra” and that “Europe and the European Union needs to be extra united when it comes to our political and army help to Ukraine.”
“Poland has been one of many main nations when it comes to weapons deliveries to Ukraine and I imagine the Polish authorities might be steadfast in its dedication to maintain…delivering anti-aircraft techniques, self-propelled howitzers and tanks to Ukraine,” he mentioned.
Poland has additionally taken in some three million Ukrainian refugees fleeing the preventing, extra some other nation — a actuality that has fueled political strains that had been simmering between Warsaw and Brussels properly earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Friction between the EU and the right-leaning populist authorities of Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki reared its head Wednesday, with Poland’s minister for ties with the European bloc resigning from his submit. The Related Press characterised Konrad Szymanski’s departure as a weakening of the Morawiecki authorities at a second of rising political tensions in Warsaw over Europe’s power disaster and methods of countering inflation and rising prices of residing.
With Poland searching for European monetary help to take care of the Ukrainian refugee stream, the EU’s government arm moved in June to unfreeze some $38 billion that had been earmarked for Poland’s home COVID-19 restoration packages however was blocked for greater than a yr by Brussels over issues that the Warsaw authorities will improperly limit the independence of the nation’s judiciary.
Whereas such points loom within the backdrop, Ambassador Magierowski emphasised that Poland and the Baltic nations are “the main nations when it comes to army help to Ukraine per capita” and “would really like different nations to comply with swimsuit.”
“If we take a look at the ratio between relative wealth of some EU member states and ours, I imagine another nations needs to be doing rather more,” he mentioned.
‘American troops in Poland’
The ambassador gently chided fellow EU nations for failing to heed Poland’s warnings over the previous decade concerning the hazard of turning into too reliant on Russian power. Mr. Putin’s threats to restrict or lower off totally Russian power exports to European markets has confirmed a potent supply of leverage and despatched governments scrambling to seek out different suppliers because the winter months method.
“It is a very painful lesson for all of us, nonetheless Poland has been prescient all alongside,” he mentioned. “A few years in the past, we had been already warning our companions within the European Union that Putin would at some point weaponize power and exports of Russian gasoline to Europe and that is what we’re witnessing proper now.”
Poland has been shifting for years towards pure gasoline from non-Russian producers. Along with opening its first LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea in 2015, Poland this yr inaugurated the so-called “Baltic Pipe,” now transferring gasoline from the Norwegian continental shelf by way of Denmark to the Polish shoreline.
“Now we’re formally and completely impartial of imports of Russian gasoline, which isn’t the case, sadly in Germany or in France or in Austria or in different nations,” Ambassador Magierowski mentioned.
The ambassador cautioned towards believing “Russian propaganda” concerning the current discovery of huge pure gasoline leaks into the Baltic Sea following obvious assaults that ruptured Russia’s Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines to Western Europe,
Whereas some Western officers have instructed Russian operatives carried out the assaults in a bid to worsen the influence of the power disaster now dealing with EU nations, the Kremlin has countered that the pipelines had been doubtless sabotaged by the West in a plot to weaken Moscow’s power leverage over Europe.
“It could be preposterous responsible the West, the USA or Poland for sabotaging the pipeline community,” Ambassador Magierowski informed The Instances.
He known as the Poland-U.S. alliance, calling it “ironclad, steadfast and truly probably the most very important and most important when it comes to Poland’s international coverage,” asserting that Poland is dedicated to “making an attempt to cooperate fruitfully with each Democratic and Republican administrations.”
The ambassador additionally famous what he mentioned was President Biden’s “clear imaginative and prescient of what we needs to be doing proper now when it comes to aiding Ukraine.”
With Mr. Biden having introduced in June that the institution of the U.S. Military’s V Corps’ everlasting headquarters in Poland, Ambassador Magierowski mentioned Warsaw-Washington safety ties are deepening.
“To place it bluntly,” he mentioned. “We anticipate much more American troops in Poland.”
• Sean Salai contributed to this text.
Originally published at Irvine News HQ
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